Comparing Harris's likely chances to Biden's and other Democrats' show she'd be competitive, which means fear of nominating her shouldn't be part of the president's decision
The major problem – which she is often criticized for, at least among non-Democrats – is that her speech often (if not always) degrades into incomprehensible gibberish.
She might (possibly) be able to deliver speeches from teleprompters, but impromptu speech will continue to be a problem, unless the press plays along (as they notoriously have with Biden [but no other President or candidate]) and ask only questions which have already been submitted to Harris.
Even as Biden's cognitions is denigrated, he is still seen as being more self-aware, at least enough so that he has an obligation to act differently and dear Donald does not.
Dear Donald acted completely against type in that notorious debate, letting Biden self-immolate without interference. I don’t think we’ve ever seen such discipline in him (and I’ve been, willy-nilly, following him since I moved to Manhattan in 1979).
There's a good Ezra Klein podcast from February 21, 2024. It doesn't make an open primary sound all that risky. I was surprised - it was a compelling series of arguments. Interestingly, one plus would be that it would make for riveting TV. Depending on who they tapped, Sarah Longwell thinks the new candidate could win over swing voters. She doesn't think Kamela Harris could.
I think Klein is badly wrong on this, and has been the whole time. He's imagining scenarios in which variables all go the way he'd like, and confidently asserting them as likely—such as a contested convention that maneuvers around the vice president will go smoothly and end with everyone unifying—rather than recognizing how many factors are uncertain and could easily break another way.
It's like he's writing a TV show he and people like him would enjoy, not assessing risk in a high stakes real-world competition that heavily depends on people who aren't like him.
The major problem – which she is often criticized for, at least among non-Democrats – is that her speech often (if not always) degrades into incomprehensible gibberish.
She might (possibly) be able to deliver speeches from teleprompters, but impromptu speech will continue to be a problem, unless the press plays along (as they notoriously have with Biden [but no other President or candidate]) and ask only questions which have already been submitted to Harris.
Even as Biden's cognitions is denigrated, he is still seen as being more self-aware, at least enough so that he has an obligation to act differently and dear Donald does not.
Intriguing.
Dear Donald acted completely against type in that notorious debate, letting Biden self-immolate without interference. I don’t think we’ve ever seen such discipline in him (and I’ve been, willy-nilly, following him since I moved to Manhattan in 1979).
That's a pretty gullible assessment. He's a long confidence man, and if you want to ignore that based on this, that's neat.
Go ahead if you want, I am not stopping you, that is your choice to make.
There's a good Ezra Klein podcast from February 21, 2024. It doesn't make an open primary sound all that risky. I was surprised - it was a compelling series of arguments. Interestingly, one plus would be that it would make for riveting TV. Depending on who they tapped, Sarah Longwell thinks the new candidate could win over swing voters. She doesn't think Kamela Harris could.
I think Klein is badly wrong on this, and has been the whole time. He's imagining scenarios in which variables all go the way he'd like, and confidently asserting them as likely—such as a contested convention that maneuvers around the vice president will go smoothly and end with everyone unifying—rather than recognizing how many factors are uncertain and could easily break another way.
It's like he's writing a TV show he and people like him would enjoy, not assessing risk in a high stakes real-world competition that heavily depends on people who aren't like him.
Do you mean “open convention”? There aren’t many primaries left …
I would think that the major risk for the Democrats is that the delegates lean much further left than voters.
Yes! Sorry - open convention.