Opponents of Biden's Gaza Policy Make a Statement in Michigan

The Uncommitted campaign showed it’s far from a majority of Democrats, but might have the numbers to impact the general election. Winning them back could be difficult.

Progressive opponents of President Joe Biden’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza not only argue against his policy, they also claim it’s a liability for his reelection. The Democratic primary in Michigan, which has a large and politically active Arab American population, is where they set out to prove it. On Tuesday, they mostly did.

Multiple organizations sprung up dedicated to the cause, such as “Listen to Michigan,“ whose website says, “Uncommitted Michigan Democrats opposed to Biden’s policy in Gaza can demonstrate that we hold his margin of victory for re-election.” Prominent Michigan Democrats have campaigned for Uncommitted, most notably Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib. In the New York Times, Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud advocated voting Uncommitted as a message to Biden, urging the president to “choose the salvation of our democracy over aiding and abetting [Israeli Prime Minister] Netanyahu’s war crimes.”

There are two aspects to Michigan’s Uncommitted campaign and the national movement it represents: a call to change U.S. policy and a claim of political leverage. The former is a matter of opinion, but the latter is an empirical question. Polls provide some insight, but on the Gaza war, the answers vary a lot with question wording. The Michigan primary and the Uncommitted campaign provided a real-world test.

With over 100,000 votes, Biden’s critics showed themselves to be a political force, one the president’s reelection campaign will have difficulty dealing with.

Political Strength 

To determine the Uncommitted movement’s impact on the 2024 primary, the closest points of comparison are previous Michigan primaries, the other Democratic primaries this year, and the 2020 election. 

In 2012, President Barack Obama was running for reelection without a serious challenger for the Democratic nomination. He got 89.3% in the Michigan primary, with 20,833 people voting Uncommitted.

Interestingly, in 2016 and 2020, when Democrats did not have an incumbent president and the primary was competitive, overall turnout in Michigan was much higher, but the total number of Uncommitted votes was around the same: 21,601 in 2016, and 19,106 in 2020, both less than 2% of the total.

Uncommitted’s showing was much higher in 2024. Even if we assume that 20,000 Michigan Democrats always vote Uncommitted to make a point, that means over 80,000 turned out to send a message of dissent.

Biden had a strong showing too, getting over 600,000 votes, more than 70% what he got in the competitive 2020 primary against Bernie Sanders. Michigan’s primary saw much higher turnout than any other Democratic contest this year, suggesting a large counter-protest, as the president’s supporters showed up to defeat the challenge from Uncommitted. 

Biden won this year’s Michigan primary with over 81% of votes. That disproves Rep. Tlaib’s claim that opponents of Biden’s Gaza policy speak for a majority of Americans, or at least a majority of Democrats. Anyone hoping to pressure Biden to step down so Democrats can pick a different 2024 nominee should be disappointed.

But Biden’s Michigan total was still 8 points below Obama in 2012, and worse than his performance in the two previous official Democratic primaries this year, suggesting that the Uncommitted campaign had an effect.

South Carolina (Feb. 3): There was no Uncommitted option, but there were two other candidates on the ballot, Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips for anyone who wanted to register a protest vote. Biden won with 96.2%.

Nevada (Feb. 6): Biden got 89.4%. Nevada includes an option to vote “none of these candidates,” which got 5.6%. Williamson got 3%, and a variety of candidates each getting less than 1% made up the rest.

The percentages still show a big Biden win in Michigan, albeit not as high as in other states, but the raw numbers should make his campaign nervous.

In the 2020 general election, Biden defeated Donald Trump in Michigan by 154,188 votes. The Uncommitted protest vote total is awfully close to that margin.

If many anti-Biden voters opt for Trump, that could swing the state, maybe the election. Few will do that—after all, they chose to vote in the Democratic primary, the same day Trump was running in the Republican one— but thousands may submit ballots that leave president blank.

Biden’s 2020 general election vote in Michigan was about twice the total vote in that year’s Democratic primary. If we assume a similar turnout ratio in 2024, with each Uncommitted vote in this year’s primary representing two general election voters, that plausibly holds Biden’s margin for reelection. 

What Can the Biden Campaign Do?

The easy answer is listen to these Michigan voters, and change U.S. foreign policy to push for a ceasefire in Gaza.

But that gets complicated fast.

The U.S. has been working with Egypt and Qatar to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, facilitating prisoner/hostage exchanges and delivery of more humanitarian aid. But that’s not what the Uncommitted campaign means by “ceasefire.” They want the U.S. to demand that Israel unilaterally cease military operations in Gaza, cutting off U.S. military aid and cooperation to get Israel to comply.

For long-running domestic and geopolitical reasons, the United States isn’t going to do that. And while the American public supports a ceasefire in the abstract, reducing military aid to Israel gets less than a third in polls, including among Democrats, while more Americans want to maintain aid (and some want to increase it).

Biden could have the U.S. join, rather than veto, UN Resolutions calling for a ceasefire. But the U.S. argues that the resolutions are too one-sided, demanding too little of Hamas, and undermine negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage deal.

One thing with no trade-offs that Biden could do is show more empathy for the tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians killed, many of them children.

He can do that regardless, but if it’s not accompanied by significant policy change, it’s unlikely to sway the sort of critics who voted Uncommitted.

Some of them will never vote for Biden because of his support for Israel in this war. A portion of Americans who call the president “Genocide Joe” won’t support him under any circumstances.

Some will hold their nose and back him in November to stop Trump. They know Trump will side more completely with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and against the Palestinians, ban Muslims from entering the United States, order crackdowns on pro-Palestinian protests, and be worse than Biden on many things they care about.

Still, the Michigan primary showed enough discontent with Biden that winning back at least some Uncommitted voters should be a priority for his campaign. The Michigan Republican Party is a mess, and Trump got only 68.1% in the GOP primary, which are signs of weakness. But general election polls show Trump tied or ahead. It’s too early to read much into polls, but with the relatively close 2020 margin, Biden probably can’t afford to lose many Michigan voters.

But winning them over won’t be easy. not least because changes in Middle East policy to court some voters end up alienating others. As far electoral strategy goes, Biden will probably keep pushing for a brokered temporary ceasefire in Gaza, hope that the situation in Israel-Palestine is less awful by the summer, campaign in Michigan on other issues—such as his support for auto unions—and count on anti-Trump sentiment to overcome the rest. It’s not a great plan, but there might not be a better one.