I think this is a good analysis of DeSantis as an avatar for "Trumpism", if we treat it like an ideology, or at least a political style that can be replicated. I wonder, though, if you discount how singular Trump is because of his skills and history as an entertainer -- his feral charisma, his emphasis on facades and showmanship, his ability to surprise and distract, his decades of ubiquitous celebrity as a "successful businessman". I don't think he is funny, but he can be fun for people with a certain vulgar sensibility. Ron DeSantis has none of this.
You mention this in your article, but perhaps it would be worth weighing more directly how much of Trump's appeal has come from his sheer entertainment value (again, not for everyone, but for a large enough segment of the population) versus the political and ideological features you associate with "Trumpism" in this article?
Here's another counterpoint: I'm not convinced that Americans would ultimately accept a truly authoritarian state, even with someone like DeSantis in charge of the executive branch, and so some of the ideological presuppositions around this reactionary movement are murky, in my view. Here's a thought experiment. Imagine that the war in Ukraine had not happened yet, but it would happen in 5 years, and during that time 5 million hardcore MAGA-types emigrated to Siberia out of disgust for lefty coastal wokeness in the US and set up a political network in one of the regions there. How many of them would want to mobilize to Ukraine, versus agitating against the regime in Moscow? It may seem paradoxical, but the reactionary types in this country are also anti-authoritarian, and the movement might exhaust itself if there were no liberal authority to react against.
Thanks for the kind comments. To your point about entertainment, I agree that was/is key to Trump’s appeal. And I think the jury’s out on whether DeSantis can tap into that. There seems to be good reason to think he’s a bit too cranky and weird to make that work for him. But we will have to see.
I don’t really think America is on the edge of becoming genuinely authoritarian. I mostly think there’s a prevailing view in the current GOP that doesn’t really think using state power against groups like migrants or LGBTQ people is necessarily a bad thing and who aren’t really committed to the idea that their opponents are legitimate. I don’t mean to suggest the American public is just around the corner from something like Putin’s Russia. But the erosion of norms and values is still cause for concern.
I'm very concerned as well. The effect of an ascendent Trumpism, however, might be more like serious degradation of state capacity and a hollowing of the economy that would lead towards hyperinflation or other problems over a decade or two. These culture war laws will definitely lead to terrible injustices towards groups targeted by reactionary groups, but also I'm skeptical that they will have a medium term impact on daily life for the average person that was evident in 20th century totalitarian states.
It would be helpful if, in the discourse about the reactionary movement, there was a better picture of the range of outcomes that are possible if these people exert control over government for a longer period of time. I haven't seen anyone has written an article that lays out a wide range of possibilities in one place. For example, if we get away from the Stalin/Hitler/Mao comparisons, people like to point at Orbanism as a possible outcome for Trumpets scheming, but I wonder if the US is just too big and decentralized for that. How are they going to completely shut down the NY Times, etc. and all the money and local influence that comes out of blue America? The country's potential trajectory if they win a bunch of key elections in 2024-2028 could have few obvious precedents.
Charisma in politicians is overated. Nice to have, but Nixon had zero, yet was, until Watergate, a successful president in a challenging time. The illiberalization of the GOP, to the extent it exists, (not that sure) is mostly a reaction to Democratic illiberalism--wokeness.
Hi Marla, I don’t really doubt that the most hardcore of Trump’s support isn’t going to be swayed. I also focused this piece more on what certain elites on the right are saying. Rufo and Dreher very much do like DeSantis primarily because of culture war issues—this is an area where I think he’s actually outflanked Trump a bit.
As for the charisma issue, I trust the analysis of folks like Marc Caputo who have said DeSantis is famously prickly in private, a quality that Trump isn’t known for sharing. I suspect I won’t be able to convince you that DeSantis has pursued illiberal tactics in his demonization of trans people and other LGBTQ Floridians. But again, those are explicitly the things folks like Rufo and Dreher like about him, and the latter does compare him to Orban. He just does it favorably.
If I’m left with a world where I have to choose and can only choose between Trump or DeSantis being the 2024 GOP nominee, I’ll take DeSantis. But I remain unconvinced that he’ll moderate the party.
Alan--
I think this is a good analysis of DeSantis as an avatar for "Trumpism", if we treat it like an ideology, or at least a political style that can be replicated. I wonder, though, if you discount how singular Trump is because of his skills and history as an entertainer -- his feral charisma, his emphasis on facades and showmanship, his ability to surprise and distract, his decades of ubiquitous celebrity as a "successful businessman". I don't think he is funny, but he can be fun for people with a certain vulgar sensibility. Ron DeSantis has none of this.
You mention this in your article, but perhaps it would be worth weighing more directly how much of Trump's appeal has come from his sheer entertainment value (again, not for everyone, but for a large enough segment of the population) versus the political and ideological features you associate with "Trumpism" in this article?
Here's another counterpoint: I'm not convinced that Americans would ultimately accept a truly authoritarian state, even with someone like DeSantis in charge of the executive branch, and so some of the ideological presuppositions around this reactionary movement are murky, in my view. Here's a thought experiment. Imagine that the war in Ukraine had not happened yet, but it would happen in 5 years, and during that time 5 million hardcore MAGA-types emigrated to Siberia out of disgust for lefty coastal wokeness in the US and set up a political network in one of the regions there. How many of them would want to mobilize to Ukraine, versus agitating against the regime in Moscow? It may seem paradoxical, but the reactionary types in this country are also anti-authoritarian, and the movement might exhaust itself if there were no liberal authority to react against.
Thanks for the kind comments. To your point about entertainment, I agree that was/is key to Trump’s appeal. And I think the jury’s out on whether DeSantis can tap into that. There seems to be good reason to think he’s a bit too cranky and weird to make that work for him. But we will have to see.
I don’t really think America is on the edge of becoming genuinely authoritarian. I mostly think there’s a prevailing view in the current GOP that doesn’t really think using state power against groups like migrants or LGBTQ people is necessarily a bad thing and who aren’t really committed to the idea that their opponents are legitimate. I don’t mean to suggest the American public is just around the corner from something like Putin’s Russia. But the erosion of norms and values is still cause for concern.
I'm very concerned as well. The effect of an ascendent Trumpism, however, might be more like serious degradation of state capacity and a hollowing of the economy that would lead towards hyperinflation or other problems over a decade or two. These culture war laws will definitely lead to terrible injustices towards groups targeted by reactionary groups, but also I'm skeptical that they will have a medium term impact on daily life for the average person that was evident in 20th century totalitarian states.
It would be helpful if, in the discourse about the reactionary movement, there was a better picture of the range of outcomes that are possible if these people exert control over government for a longer period of time. I haven't seen anyone has written an article that lays out a wide range of possibilities in one place. For example, if we get away from the Stalin/Hitler/Mao comparisons, people like to point at Orbanism as a possible outcome for Trumpets scheming, but I wonder if the US is just too big and decentralized for that. How are they going to completely shut down the NY Times, etc. and all the money and local influence that comes out of blue America? The country's potential trajectory if they win a bunch of key elections in 2024-2028 could have few obvious precedents.
More cud for chewing.
Charisma in politicians is overated. Nice to have, but Nixon had zero, yet was, until Watergate, a successful president in a challenging time. The illiberalization of the GOP, to the extent it exists, (not that sure) is mostly a reaction to Democratic illiberalism--wokeness.
Hi Marla, I don’t really doubt that the most hardcore of Trump’s support isn’t going to be swayed. I also focused this piece more on what certain elites on the right are saying. Rufo and Dreher very much do like DeSantis primarily because of culture war issues—this is an area where I think he’s actually outflanked Trump a bit.
As for the charisma issue, I trust the analysis of folks like Marc Caputo who have said DeSantis is famously prickly in private, a quality that Trump isn’t known for sharing. I suspect I won’t be able to convince you that DeSantis has pursued illiberal tactics in his demonization of trans people and other LGBTQ Floridians. But again, those are explicitly the things folks like Rufo and Dreher like about him, and the latter does compare him to Orban. He just does it favorably.
If I’m left with a world where I have to choose and can only choose between Trump or DeSantis being the 2024 GOP nominee, I’ll take DeSantis. But I remain unconvinced that he’ll moderate the party.